Jamie You are correct in all accounts here. The US has 50,000 soldiers and marines in the area. Just to take a region of Iran around the Hormuz Strait would be a very difficult operation involving hundreds of thousands of soldiers. It’s far harder than the Gulf war with modern drones and modern technology giving the IRGC an asymmetric advantage, despite the far greater air supremacy than in the Gulf war. Also because Iran is huge, vast deserts, very rocky, loads of caves, high mountains etc.
They could take a small island with the numbers in the region - except that the only islands that make sense are too close to the Iranian shore within easy artillery range and also even range of long range drones on optical fibres which make it extremely risky. The islands would also be mined and they might also have FPV drones such as the Russians and Ukrainians use in the Ukraine war - the IRGC has done military exercises with these while the Americans have not. The drones can just sit camouflaged by a track and then jump up and desroy a tank or helicopter or whatever with almost no warning.
The Americans are about a couple of years behind the Ukrainians and Russians - they’ve been using drones since 2023, in a big way by summer 2023 and then more and more through 2024 and 2025. The drones that intercept shaheds are small, can easily hold in two hands, light weight, and can fly using just their rotors, no rockets, at up to 250 miles per hour. The ones used on the battlefield can now easily out run motorbikes or tanks or infantry fighting vehicles. The Russians used to use motorbikes to try to get through but they no longer work.
But the Americans are yet to do more than early tests in FPV drone technology. They have sent some of their drones to Ukraine to test in the war. So they have combat tested drones of their own. But they haven’t yet started manufacturing them or training their soldiers to use them. It takes about a month of training to be a decent FPV drone pilot good enough for drone combat. This lack of progress on drone technology is partly because of Trump’s conviction that the US has nothing to learn from Ukraine - Zelensky offered to sell Ukrainian drones to the US last summer but Trump wasn’t interested. European countries are behind Ukraine too in this technology but are already investing in drone manufacturing in collaborations with Ukraine.
If the IRGC had the abilities of the Russians with drone technology then against the US with no experience of it and nobody even with combat drones on their teams they would have no chance in a land operation.
So it would be a gamble about how advanced or not the IRGC drone capabilities are.
It would be more practical with a quick in and out operation but still very risky. The issue is that they would need to get the crew out at the end.
The US was able to get this one special operations officer out after two nights now hurray.
But now imagine trying to evacuate 5000 marines from an island that they got stuck on because the Iranians desroyed their helicopters or however they got there. And all this within artillery range as wsel as short range ballistic missiles and Shahed drones and also FPV drones on optical fibre. Probably the Iranians aren’t at this stage yet but if they encountered thousands of FPV drones faster than a motorbike and unjammable because they are flown from optical fibres probably many would be killed and the remainder would surrender.
So - any operations are likely to be very short in and out similar to the Weapons Systems Operative rescue.
BLOG: The missing F-15E American Weapons System Officer has been rescued from Iran
— upholding the US Airman’s creed
— “I will never leave an Airman behind”
— shows air superiority but NOT air dominance
— US needs to be cautious as Iran can still shoot their pl;anes down
You can read it here:
https://shortdebunks.substack.com/p/the-missing-f-15e-american-weapons
Possibly after experience of operations like that they might try something larger like to take over an island but it is very very risky and the issue is that Iran would use any captured marines, airmen etc as bargaining chips / levers etc.
Trump is surely acutely aware of that now and so will know to be cautious, which his generals have surely advised him all along.
