Update: Hungary's Victor Orban conceded and at 141 seats it's a 2/3 majority to Tisza / Peter Magyar which means he can change the constitution and undo Orban's changes

Robert-Walker · 2026-04-12T12:45:40+00:00

Victor Orban conceded to Peter Magyar with a very clear majority. The final total is 141 seats for Tisza by the end of count on Saturday at 100% complete. It...

Robert-Walker

It’s now at 136, still comfortably above the 133 seat threshold. One recount on its way. If it succeeded it would reduce it to 135.

https://www.hungarianconservative.com/articles/current/hungary-election-districts-close-race/

Then it is possible to have very minor effects as more foreign mission and transferred votes are taken account of.

Final figures on Saturday. I don’t see anyone suggesting the supermajority is at risk.

The processing of postal, foreign mission, and transferred votes will be completed by the end of Saturday; until then, the data reflects the current state of processing.

https://vtr.valasztas.hu/ogy2026?filter=orszagos

Robert-Walker

Peter Magyar says that no other country has the right to ask Ukraine to give up territory to Russia, comparing it to giving up Hungarian counties.

He says it needs robust security guarantees after the war and stronger than the Budapest memorandum.

He has also said that Hungary will unblock the 90 billion euro loan

QUOTE STARTS

Hungary’s government will drop its opposition to the EU’s €90 billion loan to Ukraine, incoming Prime Minister Péter Magyar signaled, bringing a four-month standoff to an end.

Speaking at a press conference in Budapest, Magyar said the EU decision on the loan “was already made in December” and that the incoming Tisza administration “would like to be coherent” with previous commitments.

Viktor Orbán, who lost Sunday’s general election by a landslide, initially approved the loan at a summit of EU leaders at the end of last year, before going back on the agreement ― a breach of normal protocol. He said he wouldn’t allow the funds to be released until Ukraine repaired a pipeline carrying Russian oil through the country to Hungary.
…
Leaders won’t have to meet again to unblock the loan. Magyar signaled the decision could be taken even before his government assumes office, which should take place within the month.

Even if Hungary allows the loan to go ahead, it still won’t contribute.

“I will discuss with European leaders but I personally agree that Hungary should opt out, Hungary is in a very difficult situation," Magyar said. “We cannot take out even more loans, the Hungarian budget deficit has tripled since 2010.”.
…
While Orbán “still will be a caretaking prime minister,” he “shouldn’t make decisions over my head,” Magyar said.
https://www.politico.eu/article/peter-magyar-hints-ending-hungary-block-e90b-ukraine-loan/

Euractiv towards the end here explains how Ukraine can last out until it gets the loan by things such as spending funding earmarked for the end of the year earlier in the year. It could also do things like printing money to cover the gap.

https://www.euractiv.com/news/why-orbans-defeat-wont-yet-unblock-eus-e90-billion-ukraine-loan/

stevie-mccarthy

Such good news for Ukraine!! Sorry for not keeping up with the Ukraine blog, it my sisters birthday yesterday and we’ve been spending every day super busy and I’m away from my phone a lot!

Robert-Walker

stevie-mccarthy Oh that’s fine. I’m not getting asked about it. Surely don’t need a Ukraine update every day.

I continue to keep notes of what’s happening in the Ukraine war but not posting them here as there’s nothing of any consequence until whenever they manage to arrange new talks - with the US understandably distracted by the Iran war for now. I could add a few details if you do a new post at any time but nothing worth starting a new post for.

BTW Hungary count has now gone back up to 137 and there’s potential to reach 139 or 140 when they finish the vote count on April 18 as they add out of constituency and foreign votes - foreign votes tend to favour the opposition (not surprisingly as less affected by the state propaganda).

https://vtr.valasztas.hu/ogy2026?filter=orszagos

Peter Magyar on Hungarina State TV saying to the host he will stop them from presenting propaganda. He said “We will immediately suspend this deceitful service that is going on here” directly to the presenter and claims it is worse than North Korea."

He says that all the parties will get coverage on the media.

He says at the end he expects to get 140 seats. This is a source saying that’s possible once voters registered outside their home constituencies and votes cast at foreign embassies are cast. |

That is likely to favour Tisza and could flip close constituencies.

QUOTE STARTS

Péter Magyar’s party currently holds 136 of the 199 seats in parliament, a figure which could rise to 139 or even 140 once votes cast at foreign embassies and by voters registered outside their home constituencies are counted on 18 April. These votes will be added to the ‘Domestic Votes’ category in the table below. In recent elections, they have tended to favor the opposition.

https://politicalcapital.hu/news.php?article_read=1&article_id=3682

It continues:
QUOTE STARTS

One of the new government’s initial steps will be to restore anti-corruption and rule-of-law institutions, as these are prerequisites for Hungary to access the billions of euros in EU cohesion and recovery funds withheld due to concerns about the rule of law and corruption under the Orbán regime. The new government must act on this front by August. Additional priorities will likely include reforming the Fidesz-organized state media apparatus, dismantling the Fidesz propaganda machine and restructuring institutions.

Although Péter Magyar promised swift leadership changes at key institutions, including the Office of the President of the Republic, the Kúria (Hungary’s highest court), the Office of the Prosecutor General, the Constitutional Court, the Media Authority, the State Audit Office and the Hungarian Competition Authority, if the incumbents refuse to resign voluntarily, this could lead to a protracted constitutional dispute and uncertainty.

The speed of these changes may also depend on how effectively Viktor Orbán can exert his influence over his appointees, since retaining these positions is in his fundamental interest. However, if any institutional leader refuses to step down, the new government can apply significant political pressure. It is also possible that institutional leaders who were loyal to Fidesz until now may gravitate towards the new government. This dynamic would be further reinforced by the fact that TISZA, with its two-thirds majority, could remove unwanted institutional leaders through constitutional amendments — or even an entirely new constitution.
…
In the new political landscape, the bandwagon effect is likely to further weaken and partially disintegrate Fidesz in the short term, especially if legal and political accountability is enforced, which the majority of TISZA voters are demanding. There would be clear grounds for such proceedings in numerous cases. A mass exodus from Fidesz’s clientelist network could follow, with many people discovering their inner dissident retroactively, as happened when the communist Kádár regime collapsed in 1989.
…
The TISZA government will have severely limited economic scope for maneuver, but greater confidence and expectations among economic and market actors, along with the anticipated arrival of EU funds and anti-corruption measures, could expand this scope to some extent. The significant interest burden on the country may also decrease (the forint has already begun to strengthen).
…
The strong mandate will enable the TISZA government to implement a more decisive shift in foreign policy. Relations with European allies could improve quickly, and by meeting anti-corruption and rule-of-law conditionality, Hungary could gain access to EU funds. However, despite its constructive EU and NATO membership, TISZA is likely to provoke symbolic conflicts with the EU on certain issues. This is to demonstrate the promised foreign policy course that stands apart from the European mainstream, and to counter Fidesz’s attempts to label TISZA as EU puppets during the campaign.
…
Even if it does not sever all ties, the new government will begin to distance itself decisively from Russia, including in the energy sector. This will strengthen the country’s energy security and represent the first step towards rebuilding trust with Western partners. However, it would be unrealistic to expect Russian influence to disappear overnight. The Kremlin is keen to weaken the new government. Both Fidesz and Mi Hazánk could become prominent platforms for advancing Russian interests in Hungary. At the same time, Russia will likely try to court the new government as well. An equally important signal would be if the Kremlin were to distance itself from Fidesz.

https://politicalcapital.hu/news.php?article_read=1&article_id=3682

And about how it happened:

QUOTE STARTS

Traditional political tools such as cross-country campaign tours, which enable personal contact with voters, proved more effective than the regime’s informational tools. Meanwhile, Fidesz and its shrinking support base became detached from reality, becoming trapped in their own information bubble. Consequently, the electoral defeat took even the regime’s own elite by surprise.

Reminiscent of the pre-1989 era, Russian influence was also unable to keep the Orbán regime in power. As we previously wrote, the question was not whether Russia would intervene in the election, but whether such intervention would be successful. Ultimately, this too was unable to override dissatisfaction with the government in Hungary, aided significantly by investigative journalism that revealed the true extent of the Russian-Hungarian relationship.

https://politicalcapital.hu/news.php?article_read=1&article_id=3682

Robert-Walker

It’s now at 140 seats for Tisza and if anything could increase even more by the end of count on Saturday.

Robert-Walker

Wrote this up as a blog post:

BLOG: Shift of Hungary from far right to centre-right: Peter Mayar’s ⅔ majority will completely overturn all far right changes Orban made
— restore LGBT rights
— won’t block EU aid to Ukraine
You can read it here:
https://robertinventor.substack.com/p/hungary-election

Robert-Walker

Now at 141 seats, almost finished, 99.98%

https://vtr.valasztas.hu/ogy2026?filter=orszagos

Might well be the final result but will check again when it’s 100%.

stevie-mccarthy

Robert-Walker Amazing!!

Robert-Walker

141 is the final total
https://vtr.valasztas.hu/ogy2026?filter=orszagos

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