China can’t attack Taiwan. This is just China trying to stop the US from selling weapons to Taiwan. There is no way that this works. But if hypothetically Trump did stop sales to Taiwan - it has $32 billion in backlog already sold to it that waits for the Taiwanese government to approve the budget to buy them - and then Taiwan can make everything itself by changing from a budget to buy arms from the US to a budget to buy them from its own state companies and private contractors in Taiwan.
Taiwan has military technology similar to South Korea and Japan and can make everything it needs itself but chooses to buy it from the US instead. It would need some time to scale up the factories and then it would make it itself. The $32 billion backlog from the US could help during that transition period.
But there is no way that Trump stops sales to Taiwan in reality.
Trump in both his terms has sold billions of dollars of arms to Taiwan in both terms. It’s beyond incredible that Trump decides to stop doing this. As president he has the authority to stop it for the duration of his presidency. But 2025 was a record year for him and more than Biden sold to Taiwan in his entire presidency. He can’t commit for any future president.
The figures are:
- Trump (2025-) - $11.4354 billion in his first year
- Biden (2021-5) - $8.3774 billion
- Trump (2017-2021) - $18.27 billion
Largest single year since 2021:
- 2019 (multiple dates) - $10.72356 billion:
https://www.forumarmstrade.org/ustaiwan.html
There are no US bases in Taiwan and at most the US may send advisors / observers. In a hypothetical attack on Taiwan then the US would not be involved in defending Taiwan. It’s main role would be to break any blockade to let in more supplies during the war.
Taiwan can easily protect itself during the first few days when the Chinese ships would be very vulnerable, 10,000 small ships, 200 soldiers and all their gear per ship, only possible at particular times of year in spring and the fall for a couple of weeks each time. Can’t land on the West coast because of coral reefs. Only 14 small invasion beaches on the East side (furthest from China). Would quickly deploy sea mines during the Chinese crossing. Protected with booby trapped beaches, with earthquake hardened skyscrapers or hills / cliffs overlooking them for artillery to fire from. Almost impossible for soldiers to land and survive.
Also, there’s no way for China to invade Taiwan by air the Taiwanese air defences and just shoulder to air missiles would shoot down the transport planes.
And this would be the most difficult military operation by far of any in modern history, far harder than D-day and in a modern world with Taiwan able to see the fleet assembling from orbit and every move of every ship as it approaches. And with the example from Ukraine that it can sink Russian ships anywhere even in Crimea now.
And about one year of warning as China needs to mobilize 2 million extra soldiers to even attempt it which couldn’t be hidden. That would be a year for Taiwan to mobilize too and ramp up its production which nowadays would include drones too.
That would be way way harder than the US attacking Iran. Nobody has ever done any military operation as hard as a Chinese attack on Taiwan
China has no combat experience this century apart from throwing stones and using knives in a couple of minor skirmishes and shooting some warning shots in the demilitarized zone in the Himalayas. Most of its equipment and all except its very oldest soldiers are untested in combat. And it can’t do it by surprise because of that need to recruit an extra 2 million soldiers which would need at least 6 months training and allowing 6 months to recruit them all you get one year - and get together a fleet of 10,000 ships and load them which would be visible a couple of months before the invasion itself.
It can’t fly equipment or troops in - that would jsut be sittign ducks.
Has to sail in by sea, 4 hour crossing and Taiwan is very well equipped to defend its 14 invasion beaches.
There are no US bases in Taiwan. The US is not needed to defend Taiwan from China, one of the big misconceptions of many Americans. Taiwan has a big enough army and is far better equipped than Ukraine- it’s a high tech modern country like Japan and South Korea with its own miltiary with fighter jets, subs, a navy including destroyers, cruise missiles, ballistic missiles with capability far greater than Ukraine, air defences. etc.
But if hypothetically Taiwan was blocked from buying weapons from the US it could build them all itself - it is more than able to do so but instead chooses to buy the equipment from the USA.
Taiwan has similar technological capability to South Korea and Japan and one of the more advanced military defence production capabilities in the world.
It makes its own fighter jets, military ships including destroyers, diesel attack submarines, cruise missiles similar in range and payload to the Tomahawk, ballistic missiles with a range of 1000s of kms, artillery, air defences etc. It’s one of the more advanced military powers in the world. Far more capable than Ukraine is even now.
It makes them in
- the National Chung-Shan Institute of Science and Technology (NCSIST) [for missiles],
- the Aerospace Industrial Development Corporation (AIDC) (fighter jets)
- China Shipbuilding Corporation (CSBC) (frigates, destroyers, submarines etc)
Its main limitation is that it doesn’t spend as much as e.g. NATO countries on defence. There’s a $32 billion backlog of US arms sales to Taiwan because the Taiwanese government can’t pass the budgets to buy them all.
https://tsm.schar.gmu.edu/taiwan-arms-sale-backlog-january-2026-update/
It could also make all its own systems but prefers to buy them. There’s a fair bit of criticism of this:
QUOTE STARTS
Currently, Taiwan can produce about 1,000 precision missiles per year. Experts in the United States estimate it would need more than 1,200 anti-ship missiles to stop a full-scale Chinese invasion, and that is only one type.
Taiwan’s current stockpile could be used up in just a few days.
Instead of building enough at home, Taiwan has depended on US arms sales.
At home, Taiwan spends only 2.45% of its GDP on defense. This is less than what South Korea or Israel spends and barely more than the NATO guideline. More than half of that spending goes to salaries and upkeep. Less than one-fourth of defense purchases are made inside Taiwan.
Almost all of that goes to just three state-owned companies: the National Chung-Shan Institute of Science and Technology (NCSIST) [for missiles], the Aerospace Industrial Development Corporation (AIDC) and the China Shipbuilding Corporation (CSBC). Private industry is barely involved.
https://asiatimes.com/2025/08/dependent-and-exposed-taiwans-military-supply-chain-crisis/
And about how it’s proving difficult to pass the budget with several competing versions:
https://understandingwar.org/research/china-taiwan/china-taiwan-update-may-1-2026/
However if China was to start recruiting that 2 million strong army and assembling that 10,000 ship fleet - then you can be pretty sure that those budget difficulties would disappear - Taiwan also would have about a year to mobilize and to ramp up production domestically. Nowadays especially the FPV drones can ramp up to millions a year very quickly at low cost.
But it buys major systems from the US.
This is regulated by the US Taiwan Relations Act which Trump can’t change. And there is no possibility of Congress changing it with robust bipartisan support. It was passed in 1979.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Taiwan_Relations_Act
All Trump is likely to do is to say some ambiguous empty words. And he might say something that goes against US policy or the US Taiwan Relations Act - if so the US White House would quickly clarify and say he didn’t mean what he seemed to say.
And no way that China really attacks Taiwan.
In short, Taiwan depends on itself for defence. It is very capable and has a large enough army because of its geographic advantage of the Strait of Taiwan and because the defender has an advantage. It also has very high level military technology similar in capability to Japan or South Korea with very capable self built missiles, cruise missiles, detroyers, fighter jets, submarines etc.
The US can choose to sell it less equipment but Trump has shown he is very ready to sell equipment to Taiwan.
And then it’s about whether the US would intervene to break any blockade the Chinese impose. The US keep a deliberate ambiguity there but in practice near certain would.
But there’s no way China invades Taiwan.
Trump’s visit is not likely to change that and most personal decisions of foreign policy he makes can be overturned by the next president.
China can’t realistically take Taiwan militarily.
BLOG: There is no possibility of China invading Taiwan now or indeed ever
— it is not preparing for a sea invasion
— would be obvious a year in advance
— likely militarily impossible against modern missiles
You can read it here:
https://robertinventor.substack.com/p/there-is-no-possibility-of-china
BLOG: Ukraine war will not encourage China to invade Taiwan
— the opposite
— highlights how risky it would be for China internationally and also militarily
You can read it here:
https://robertinventor.substack.com/p/ukraine-war-will-not-encourage-china
Copying over my answer here as a new debunk
https://ddebunked.org/d/4056-really-worried-about-china-taking-taiwan-and-it-officially-escalating-into-a-world-war
