LTSC1980 This does NOT mean nukes, it’s about whether it will cause delays in the negotiations. The Iranian president is far less important than in the USA. It needn’t make that much difference because the president doesn’t play a big role at present. Motjaba is at the top not the president Pezeshkian. And Ghalibaf the speaker is the lead negotiaotr.
Pezeshkian would be needed later to sign the deal - they would need to get a stand in to replace him if Motjaba acceps the resignation - but Motjaba might refuse to let him resign. He might also address his concerns that led to the resignation.
Longer term if Motjaba accepts the resignation it means resignation of a moderate president and then it would depend on who replaces him.
- it does NOT mean that Iran will develop nukes which some of you seem to be worrying
- Iran only had 60% enriched uranium and has never tried to enrich to 90%
- Iran likely doesn’t even have the capability to enrich because of the US destruction last summer and it has NOT prioritized restoring its destroyed capabiities
- It is one year to a fizzle with only part of the nuke exploding and several years to put it on a missile and it does NOT have ICBM technology because of a prohibition by the previous Supreme Leader against developing it
- Iran clearly wants a deal
- the entire spectrum of Iranian politics is opposed to zero enrichment while zero stockpiles IS supported
Then to put this in context, the president of Iran is a much weaker position than in most countries because it’s Motjaba calls all the shots.
Masoud Pezeshkian is seen as very moderate in Iranian politics. And the speaker Ghalibaf is the one who heads the negotiations. Pezeshkian can’t because that’s not seen as his role, he’d only be involved at a later stage to sign a deal with Trump (because Motjaba wouldn’t).
Motjaba can refuse to accept the resignation.
The resignation is a protest on the increasing power of the IRGC and Motjaba can act to curb that in some way.
So we don’t know where this will go.
The resignation was widely predicted and not a big surprise. I’ve seen discussion of it in my timeline for a day or two.
