This does seem concerning. At the same time, it has yet to be peer reviewed (unless I’m missing something with the preprint?), and does mention other studies that haven’t found the same thing. This is clearly a still-evolving topic and I do think more research is needed.
It also can’t identify causes as to why this is happening, which is also concerning but it seems like they suggest low albedo and cloud changes as a potential explanation. Aerosols are taken out of the equation with their methods so it’s likely not that.
But the fact that it’s unlikely to be because of CO2, CH4 or N2O (“their combined radiative forcing has increased approximately linearly over 1981–2024 (Extended Data Fig. 9), making it difficult to attribute the pronounced recent acceleration to greenhouse forcing alone.”) I think is at least a bit of a silver-lining. Mainly because some people think CH4 concentrations increasing could cause accelerated warming (ahem, clathrate gun hypothesis, which is BS) but that doesn’t seem to be happening.
I’m no expert, but based on this I’m guessing it has to do with albedo and something to do with cloud patterns in the atmosphere also affecting albedo. I wouldn’t be surprised if warming causes changes in what kinds of clouds appear more often and that in turn changes albedo. I’ve heard the upper atmosphere is warming more, maybe that causes some variation in high level clouds such as cirrus leading to less cloud cover? I’m not sure I’m just throwing stuff out there.
I’ll bump @Robert-Walker as he can likely help you way more since I’m only hypothesizing off this research alone and just pointing out the more obvious stuff.
