FalconZ Oh the good thing as I explained in my debunk is that Trump has got together a team of 100 atomic scientists to check the deal. Witkoff and Kushner met them for the first time not long before signing the Memorandum of Understanding. Then they HAVE to include the IAEA as no deal is worth anything unless it can be verified and only the IAEA has the trust of Iran to do the monitoring.
I go into that here:
BLOG: Iran / US Memorandum of Understanding now has been signed
— confirmed by US, Iran and Pakistan
You can read it here:
https://robertinventor.substack.com/p/iran-us-memorandum-of-understanding-7c3
The Iranians offered an excellent deal before the war started. It is far stronger than the JCPOA. All that Trump needs tso do is to dust that off, and get his team to look it over and they will say it is fine, this is all that’s needed.
There will be a few tweaks for sure but he already has a great deal there in place.
The Iranians from their side don’t actually want to develop nukes. What they want is the right to civilian nuclear enrichment. They want to have peaceful nuclear technology because they think if they do then the Americans and Israel will respect them more and be less likely to invade.
Also - my own analysis here - the Iranians used to be very worried about a possible regime change by the Americans.
But now the Americans have done their worst, repeatedly assassinating the highest leaders in the Iranian military and they didn’t achieve regime change.
They only need nukes as a deterrent, they are useless for attack. Their reason for nukes is to prevent regime change. Not by destroying an attacking country, nukes can’t do that. But by threatening to use nukes against a country if it tries to destroy their regime - saying “Don’t do that or I’ll use nukes”.
The whole point in nukes as a deterrent is that they are never used. It’s a bit of a strange situation. It never makes any sense at any time to use them. Even if the deterrent failed and the enemy you’re deterring is invading you they still would never help you stop them. Perfectly logical “vulcans” couldn’t use nukes because they are illogical. But for humans they can work as a deterrent against an attack.
But Iran has now shown its regime is safe from attack - by showing its military survival. So the nuke deterrent is less important.
Iran has never been keen on getting a nuke. It stayed a couple of weeks away from enough material to make a nuke for a couple of years just acumulating more at 60% and going no further. It’s a year from there to a fizzle and several years to a nuke in an ICBM. So you can see that Iran is not trying to rush into getting a nuke.
There, there’s a wide range of spectrum of political views in Iran but what matters is the position of the Supreme Leader and Motjaba seems very much in the mould of his father. Pragamatic and wanting stability of his regime. Very cautious and prudent and shrewd. That’s clear from all the negotiations and swings of the war.
Another reason is that they know that if they developed a nuke, then before they could get there, Saudi Arabia would already have one. Saudi Arabia say they could have one in weeks. Probably the only way to get there that fast is if Pakistan gave them a nuke, but Saudi Arabia did bankroll the Pakistani nuclear weapons program. Or they could get there far faster than Iran by using the knowledge Pakistan would be sure to share with them.
Then Israel would have to reveal its nukes. And Iran doesn’t even want a Middle East with any nukes. It votes every year in the UN for a nuclear weapon free Middle East. Only Israel votes against that one. US and a couple of other countries abstain every time and almost everyone else votes in favour.
The big plus for Iran of a proper watertight nuclear deal is that it is proof against any future president. They will insist on that, not one that the next US president could withdraw from unilaterally.
I talk about some of this here, could expand it.
BLOG: Iran / US Memorandum of Understanding now has been signed
— confirmed by US, Iran and Pakistan
You can read it here:
https://robertinventor.substack.com/p/iran-us-memorandum-of-understanding-7c3
