No the MoU is NOT ended. This is a temporary thing as a result of tensions that got high during the funeral of the Ayatollah Khamenei who the Israelis assassinated on the first day of the war before he knew he was at war and when he was in the middle of peace negotiations with the US.
It is very clear that the pragmatists who called for a pause in negotiations for this funeral didn’t intend it to lead to a break up of the agreement. But the high emotions gave an opportunity for the hard right IRGC to put a temporary spoke in the negotations. The important thing though is what Motjaba decides and though he personally will be very emotional about it - a funeral of his father that he can’t even attend because of concerns he could be assassinated by the Israelis - he has shown that he is like his father, the interests of the state come first and he supports the pragmatists against the far right when it comes to a decision.
Under the strict Sharia Iranian law, his children can call for the death penalty for Trump and Netanyahu for assassinating their father. But they haven’t done so. There are two ways they can avoid calling for the death penalty. They don’t seem to have legally made the death penalty impossible yet. But they could have started a court case that would end inevitably with the death penalty decision and have never done so in months of fighting. So they clearly are letting the negotiations continue.
The Iranians called for a pause in the negotiations so they could attend his funeral. Emotions got high. The IRGC who are somewhat of a loose cannon not very strongly under control of the pragmatists, they shot at three tankers. The US responded hitting 80 targets in Iran. The Iranians then fired drones at the Arab states. All that happened yesterday.
The US said it will retaliate tonight but we are now at a pause in the tit for tat and this is a time to let them return to negotiations. Which shows it is NOT a return to war but rather another breach in a continuing ceasefire.
Trump said the deal is off and threatened to attack Kharg Island. But it is not in fact militarily practical to attack Kharg Island, and he hasn’t repeated his statement that the deal is off.
So the deal is NOT off, and there will be intense behind-the-scenes negotiations.
And it doesn’t look like a planned thing by Iran. It just looks like the IRGC taking advantage of the emotions during the funeral to do something they want to do but the pragmatists don’t want to do.
The pragmatists like the Iranian speaker of their parliament, their foreign minister and Motjaba himself clearly want the negotiations to continue and are not likely to be influenced by temporary emotions during the funeral to change direction.
This is Trump’s account of how it happened as he said during the Ankara meeting with Zelensky:
They asked for a time out. They wanted to go to the funeral of khamenei. And I said, give it to him. And they start shooting missiles. I mean, it was a crazy thing. Now, we did kill him. So I guess you had to look at it that way. So the funeral took place. And they wanted to have a period of time. And they also asked that we not kill them. And we said “We are not going to kill you.” They were worried we’d kill them during the funeral. I mean, if you can believe it? What a crazy … Did you ever think I’d be doing this for a living? Marco? Maybe Pete. But this was … Pete loved this stuff from day one. But he said “Please don’t kill us during the funeral” and I said “We won’t.” And we didn’t, we didn’t do anything. We made it safe for them actually. And what happens. They try and knock out two ships. A Saudi and a guess a Kuwait. A Kuwaiti Oh no Qatari in addition. Really three of them. I don’t know about them. A lot of people say they are very dishonourable people. And they can’t keep a deal. So we’ll see.
So he confirms what I said yesterday was a hypothesis that it happened as a result of a break in negotiations for the funeral of Al Khamenei. The link isn’t direct. The Iranians likely didn’t ask for the break in order to attack shipping. Rather, they held the funeral and the Americans and Israelis didn’t hit it but the Iranians got emotional and the IRGC then may have made a choice the pragmatists didn’t authorise to fire on the shipping.
Background: Iran’s strict Sharia law gives Khamenei’s relatives the right to seek retributive justice on Netanyahu and they could ask for him and Trump to be given the death penalty but never have
The very strict Sharia law in Iran requires his relatives to seek retributive justice on his murderers and to call for Netanyahu to be killed. Actually, an Iranian lawmaker made that call today. He called for a retribution ruling to be issued against Netanyahu and Trump. I.e. a legal ruling that Trump and Netanyahu should be given the death penatly in Iranian law for their part in the assassination of Netanyahu
https://www.iranintl.com/en/202607086258
The US didn’t actually take part in the assassination of Khamenei but Trump gave Netanyahu the go ahead and celebrated it afterwards.
But the striking thing is the Iranians have NOT done this death penatly ruling, which they could have done long ago.
They can set that aside by legally forgiving Netanyahu or set it aside in another way in the interests of the state.
I think given that Iranian legislator’s remark they have probably not clarified the situation yet but left it open in Iranian law.
But the striking thing is they did not call for a retributive death penalty for Netanyahu or Trump and haven’t even started the legal process (which would inevitably lead to the death penalty once started). This means they want to continue negotiating.
For background see:
https://robertinventor.substack.com/p/update-on-iran-they-decided-not-to
So the Iranians have never called for Netanyahu or Trump to be killed in retribution and instead are negotiating with what they see as the murderers of their supreme leader.
Which they can do.
But though the Iranians are not calling for death penalty against Trump, they are still very emotional
But they still are very emotional about it. Three of Al Khamenei’s children who survived the assassination were at the funeral. Video of them here. Motjaba couldn’t attend because the Israelis would likely try to assassinate him
I posted yesterday about how they got emotional during the funeral.
QUOTE STARTS
But for many observers, the most striking aspect of the ceremonies has been the political messaging.
Aggressive slogans, posters targeting US officials and widespread displays of red flags symbolizing revenge have dominated parts of the funeral.
Critics said the tone appeared at odds with Tehran’s diplomatic calendar, with Iranian officials expected to meet US counterparts next week for talks aimed at reaching a broader agreement and easing Iran’s economic crisis.
https://www.iranintl.com/en/202607078815
Another frequently discussed issue involved videos circulating on social media showing participants symbolically pelting an image of US President Donald Trump with stones during the funeral events.
Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei’s funeral procession in Tehran on July 5, 2026.
Some citizens highlighted what they saw as a contradiction between anti-US demonstrations and expectations that Iranian and US officials could resume negotiations in the near future.
They argued that confrontational domestic messaging has repeatedly existed alongside diplomatic engagement, reflecting what they described as two parallel tracks in the Islamic Republic’s foreign policy.
https://www.iranintl.com/en/202607067849
Sequence of tit-for-tat firings - IRGC fired at tankers - US hit 80 targets in Iran - Iranians fired some drones at Arab states - US calming things down by not doing its retaliation yet just talking about it
During the funeral, the IRGC fired at some tankers. The Iranians are split in factions but Motjaba can overrule them and has supported the pragmatists. But the IRGC sometimes operate independently. That has actually lead to calls to dismantle the IRGC but that hasn’t happened and is unlikely to happen. Posted here about that earlier.
The Iranians targeted shipping
The last 24 hours have been particularly dicey. We have seen three vessels hit, two confirmed, one an LNG tanker out of Qatar that caught fire and could still explode. Things are about as messy as they have been in the last couple of weeks. And with these renewed strikes, I think the maritime traffic is largely turning back.
https://www.pbs.org/newshour/show/u-s-launches-new-strikes-on-iran-after-attacks-on-tankers-in-strait-of-hormuz
Then the US fired back, hitting 80 targets in Iran.
Trump said US forces had targeted drones, missiles, coastal defense sites, radar and surveillance systems that he said Iran had used to threaten shipping in the Strait of Hormuz.
“Anything they thought they had rebuilt or capability they were using was a target last night,” he said. “Tonight, if we need to… we will hit even more and even deeper.”
Trump also said the United States had struck Iran’s electricity infrastructure and other military-related facilities.
“We hit their electricity. We hit the things they need to operate,” he said, adding that more infrastructure could be targeted if Iran continued its actions.
https://www.iranintl.com/en/202607083016
The Iranians then fired back with some drones at Arab states.
But the US has left its retaliation to tonight which is how they de-escalate giving a chance for behind the scenes negotiations.
And that is where it stands right now. The US hasn’t responded back again. Trump says they will respond later tonight but says that he’ll see how it goes.
Trump called the deal off but didn’t repeat that statement
Trump called the deal off and said he’d strike again overnight but didn’t repeat his remarks about the deal being off during the NATO summit.
QUOTE STARTS
US President Donald Trump did not repeat his earlier remarks declaring the interim memorandum of understanding with Iran “over” during the NATO summit in Ankara, a source familiar with the talks told Reuters.
https://www.iranintl.com/en/202607086085
That doesn’t mean it is over, it’s a negotiating tactic. He didn’t repeat it during the Ankara talks.
It is a very common negotiating tactic to say “Right I’ll walk away from the deal” publicly while secretly both sides are working to keep it on track.
It’s publicly walking away waiting for Iran to change its tune.
You can be sure that the pragmatists in Iran are working behind the scenes with the Pakistani mediators and with the US negotiators, either directly or passing messages, to find a way to preserve the ceasefire
Trump claimed he’d take over Kharg Island - he has said this often, but it’s not realistic because of drones
He also claimed he’d take over Kharg Island. That is something he’s said many times but it is not practical militarily.
Population only a few thousand.
But 90% of the Iranian oil exports go through it.
The issue is that it is very close to the Iranian shore. This is where it is.
TEXT ON GRAPHIC
No way Iran war needs the draft
Any operation needs small highly trained very motivated elite forces
Draft not needed even for 697,000 soldiers in Gulf war
A draftee will be a liability with less than 6 months training
Perhaps “easiest” objective for “boots on the ground”
High value: handles 90% of Iranian oil, low population
Needs small elite highly trained ground forces
But risky as it’s within artillery range of the shore
Kharg island circled on Google maps
It would be politically risky for Trump and also leave U.S. troops there very vulnerable to attack.
It’s only 15 miles from the mainland. Or 24 km That’s well within modern artillery range of the mainland.
So it is militarily difficult too. And this is probably the EASIEST thing the US could attempt if they wanted to occupy Iranian territory on the ground (since it’s an island and Iran’s navy is no longer functioning).
It’s far harder than that because they don’t need to worry just about artillery any more. Now they have the drones operated from optical cables.
The reason is that the US hasn’t yet trained its Marines in drone or anti-drone technology. They don’t have drones either, but you need to be trained to use a military drone effectively so that’s the real bottleneck. The US has developed some drones and of course Ukraine has vast numbers and has helped Europe to build them so Ukraine is most advanced, Europe is next and the US currently is lagging in this field but does have some military drones.
But the real bottleneck here is that the US Marines don’t know how to use them. They would be very exposed since Iran does have drones and does military exercises with them.
The US is at an earlier stage and its soldiers don’t do military exercises with drones, and that would put them at a huge disadvantage on the ground.
Even with both sides with drones, it would be very hard to do such an operation any more without a huge overwhelming drone suppression advantage on the attacking side. And the US certainly doesn’t have that.
We don’t know what Iran’s capabilities are with drones. There’s never been any encounter on the ground between Iran and any other military since the drone technology took off. But if they had capabilities similar to Russia, they could destroy all the helicopters used to land the Marines on the small exposed Kharg island before they could take off and kill the Marines one by one until they agree to surrender.
Although Kharg Island is quite small it has lots of hideouts where Iranians could hide to operate drones. It’s sure to be booby-trapped too, anywhere the helicopters could land. There may be small drones sitting around lightly covered by the sand, remotely operated, waiting to jump up and attack any helicopters and soldiers. That is what Ukrainians or Russians would do in such a situation. They often have drones waiting like sort of flying mines.
It’s also within drone range of the mainland and within artillery range of the mainland. And a few hundred or a few thousand marines killed just before the midterms would be disastrous for Trump but even more so if they surrendered a few hundred marines or even one marine captured in Iranian prisons would drag out to the end of his term, probably.
So it’s not likely he attempts that. It’s just too much of a risk. Because they don’t know what Iran’s capabilities are.
The Americans do have electronic jamming gear but the Ukrainians do too and it can’t stop the drones - they are either autonomous or anti-jamming or they are operated on optical cables which makes them immune to jamming. And a small drone with a small amount of explosive is enough to prevent a helicopter from taking off when flown into the rotors / tail.
When the Israelis encountered Hezbollah drones flown on an optical cable they just had to take off as soon as they saw them. Surely the Iranians are at least as capable as Hezbollah in their drone technology.
The Americans would be the same as the Israelis. The helicopters could take off, would likely all take off as soon as the first one is destroyed or threatened - but for this operation the helicopters have to either stay there or return at the end of the operation and be on the ground long enough for the soldiers to get on board before taking off so they’d be vulnerable. Boats also.
So he’s not going to do that at least his military advisors will advise against it. And if he persists, they would resign rather than do an operation like this with near certainty that it turns out badly for the US.
It would be what the experts call a “lawful but awful” order and most generals say they would resign if asked to do such a thing. I go into that here:
https://robertinventor.substack.com/p/how-generals-can-respond-to-a-lawful?utm_source=publication-search
It is just threatening words as part of pressure on Iran to return to negotiations and to agree to continue the ceasefire.
Iranians considering what to do next
The Iranians are considering what to do next.
QUOTE STARTS
A senior Iranian lawmaker said on Wednesday that the United States had violated a memorandum of understanding by rejecting Iran’s role in managing traffic through the Strait of Hormuz.
Alaeddin Boroujerdi, a member of parliament’s National Security and Foreign Policy Committee, said the agreement and talks had established that shipping through the strait would take place “under the supervision and management of the Islamic Republic of Iran, specifically the IRGC Navy.”
[That is not exactly what it says and Iran makes this claim sometimes during the negotiations then backs down]
“They violated this agreement,” he said, adding that Iran had formally told countries and vessels that routes outside the passage designated by the IRGC Navy were not safe.
He also added that the country’s Supreme National Security Council would decide whether to continue negotiations with the United States after the latest strikes.
https://www.iranintl.com/en/202607085458
And that’s where we are right now.
