There is so much focus in the mainstream news today on these final texts but they don’t mean much. They hit the news after every COP but are meaningless, really just talking points for politicians. Soon forgotten While the quiet progress continues.
Instead listen to Simon Stiell, head of UNFCC, Head of UNFCC.. He did a powerful speech about how COP30 succeeded despite the headwinds.
starts here:
I will quote from it at the end.
Also what is not hitting the news is the text in the new end of summit agreement - the first one to say clearly and confidently that the global transition is now irreversible.
the global transition towards low greenhouse gas emissions and climate-resilient development is irreversible and the trend of the future;
It shows a new level of confidence compared to previous COPS. I’ll quote from that in context later.
Mainstream media is focusing on the lack of any mention of fossil fuels in the closing text - it’s all politics but the countries are rapidly transitioning to renewables anyway. And they have their country level NDCs. And many extra agreements made during COP. That is what really matters.
There are two things here.
- Countries like China and India are rapidly transitioning towards renewables. They can’t pledge to reduce fossil fuels yet, especially India but as the renewables increase exponentially, at some point their fossil fuel use will peak and start to fall. For China this is already about to happen, for India it is in the early to mid 2030s.
India particularly can’t commit to reduce fossil fuel use until the mid 2030s. No matter what anyone tries to force it to do. It would take a massive investment to do it before then and nobody is providing it with the finance to do it. But it has far lower CO2 emissions per capita than the US or EU and it is going to peak at far lower levels than us and then go down to zero by 2070 by their pledge but likely far sooner
All the words would do is give developed countries a reason to blame the developing countries which is why the developing countries won’t agree to it.
- Focus on producing fossil fuels. But there the risk is of stranded assets, of having oil wells that can’at produce oil because nobody wants it. There are reasons to avoid stranded assets, they are a waste of money and especially may undermine the ability of weaker economies to earn money from fossil fuels as the amount needed goes down.
But they give resilience. China in particular has a lot of resilience from its coal fired power stations and it makes sense to build them even if they have to retire them early or run them at far less than capacity.
But in an emergency it can use them until it has enough renewables so that it doesn’t matter
Instead have a listen to what Simon Stiell, leader of the UNFCC said in his closing speech
TRANSCRIPT
This year there has been a lot of attention on one country stepping back.
But amid the gale-force political headwinds, 194 countries stood firm in solidarity - rock-solid in support of climate cooperation.
194 countries representing billions of people have said in one voice that “the Paris Agreement is working", and resolved to make it go further and faster.
We see progress in a new agreement on just transition, signaling that building climate resilience and the clean economy must also be fair, with every nation and every person able to share in its vast benefits.
We see it in the agreement to triple adaptation finance.
Ensuring more countries have the support they need, even as climate disasters wreck lives and slam into global supply chains, on which every economy depends.
For the first time, 194 nations said in unison:
‘…the global transition to low greenhouse gas emissions and climate-resilience is irreversible and the trend of the future.’
194 nations agreed this word by word, because it is the truth - backed up by investment flows into renewables that now double fossil fuels.
TRANSCRIPT
At COP30 - through the Action Agenda - that is exactly what we did.
A trillion dollars for clean grids.
Hundreds of millions of hectares of forest, land and oceans protected or restored.
Over 400 million people becoming more resilient. And many more.
These achievements are not a side-show – they are real-world progress on the things billions of people care about most.
Outside these halls, billions are asking basic questions: Will there be enough food for my family?
Will I be able to pay my fuel bill?
Will my child breathe clean air?
Are the people and places I love, will they be safe from the next flood, fire, or storm?
This COP has started to deliver on these everyday concerns. Not perfectly, not fast enough but concretely.
Markets are moving, and a new economy is rising. The old polluting economy is running out of road.
But disinformation is trying to keep it alive. Its impacts run deep.
TRANSCRIPT
Disinformation actors are opportunistic – they exploit that anxiety. Everything is blamed except the real cause.
A COP of truth is fighting back. It also means we must also be realistic.
Many countries wanted to move faster on fossil fuels, finance, and responding to spiraling climate disasters.
I understand that frustration, and many of those I share myself.
But let’s not ignore how far this COP has moved us forward.
With or without Navigation Aids, our direction is clear: the shift from fossil fuels to renewables and resilience is unstoppable.
We’ve committed to speeding up the full implementation of national climate plans, and to strive to do better, collectively and cooperatively, together with the Action Agenda, driving forward this acceleration.
For two weeks each year, COP brings climate to the top of the agenda. As we leave here, our job is to keep it there for another fifty.
We’ve now seen the Indigenous word for a collective effort - ‘mutirão’ - in action.
We need to carry on this spirit of mutirão that has won out here at COP30, and for that, I thank the Presidency, the people of Brazil, my colleagues at the Secretariat and all of you.
FULL TRANSCRIPT HERE
https://unfccc.int/news/simon-stiell-closing-speech-cop30-showed-that-climate-cooperation-is-alive-and-kicking-keeping
And now look at the final text that all the media fuss is about. They don’t make any big new commitments. But they say that the global transition is irreversible and they pledge to accelerate implementation to keep 1.5 C within reach - and to support countries to implement their plans
Here are a couple of key quotes.
the global transition towards low greenhouse gas emissions and climate-resilient development is irreversible and the trend of the future;
…
to accelerate implementation, enhance international cooperation across all actors to keep 1.5 °C within reach, and support countries in implementing their nationally determined contributions and national adaptation plans
This is new. It shows a level of confidence that we are actually winning the battle on Climate Change that hasn’t been there in previous COP summaries.
In context
Further acknowledges that significant global progress has been made over the last decade, including rapid advancements and declining costs of technologies and record levels of global renewable energy capacity and clean energy investments and highlights the economic and social benefits and opportunities of climate action, including economic growth, job creation, improved energy access and security, and improved public health;
Acknowledges that the global transition towards low greenhouse gas emissions and climate-resilient development is irreversible and the trend of the future;
Also acknowledges that the Paris Agreement is working and resolves to go further and faster;
Decides to launch the “Global Implementation Accelerator”, as a cooperative, facilitative and voluntary initiative under the guidance of the Presidencies of the seventh and eighth sessions of the Conference of the Parties serving as the meeting of the Parties to the Paris Agreement to accelerate implementation, enhance international cooperation across all actors to keep 1.5 °C within reach, and support countries in implementing their nationally determined contributions and national adaptation plans and requests these Presidencies to present a report summarizing their work in this regard to the Conference of the Parties serving as the meeting of the Parties to the Paris Agreement at its eighth session;
Also decides to launch, under the guidance of the Presidencies of its sixth, seventh and eighth sessions of the Conference of the Parties serving as the meeting of the Parties to the Paris Agreement, the “Belém Mission to 1.5”, aimed at enabling ambition and implementation of nationally determined contributions and national adaptation plans, to reflect on accelerating the implementation and international cooperation and investments in nationally determined contributions and national adaptation plans across mitigation and adaptation, and requests these Presidencies to produce a report summarizing the work as they conclude the work by the eighth session of the Conference of the Parties serving as the meeting of the Parties to the Paris Agreement;
Recalls Article 4, paragraph 11, of the Paris Agreement, and encourages Parties to strengthen their existing nationally determined contribution at any time with a view to enhancing its level of ambition, in accordance with guidance adopted by the Conference of the Parties serving as the meeting of the Parties to the Paris Agreement;
https://unfccc.int/sites/default/files/resource/Mutir%C3%A3o_cop30.pdf
And reminder that before it started EMBER said that we are ahead of the curve already for triple renewables especially for solar - not quite got their with wind and hydro but solar is surging ahead and the rest aren’t far behind.
EMBER’s concern was that the grid would keep up with the surge of renewables.
Well we got that commitment for a grid resilient to triple renewables in the is pledge, $1 trillion. Also a pledge to hugely increase battery storage another important factor for a renewables transition.
While politicians wrangle and argue, governments, communities, industries, and people globally are delivering and it is very promising to stay within 1.5 C.
The Paris agreement is not only alive but we are well on track to meet the strictest 1.5 C target. Few would have thought we could get as far as this in just a decade from signing the agreement. It’s largely because of the very rapid and extraordinary advances in renewables technology especially solar.
BLOG: We are ahead of target for 1.5 C with the COP28 triple renewables pledge
— media and academics lag far behind what’s happening in the real world when they claim we are headed for 2.6 C
You can read it here:
https://robertinventor.substack.com/p/world-is-overachieving-for-15-c-with
So in some ways the most important outcome for triple renewables was the commitment of finance for a grid sufficient to support triple renewables which got little attention
QUOTE STARTS
*
Fortifying Grids and Storage:
Grids Investment Milestone to Triple Renewable Power Generation Capacity: The Utilities for Net Zero Alliance (UNEZA) announced a sharp increase in their annual energy-transition investment plans, committing nearly $150 billion per year, up from $117 billion with a major emphasis on power grids and storage.These commitments position leading utilities to invest around $1 trillion to more than triple their collective renewable capacity by 2030 relative to 2023, while delivering extensive new grid extensions, upgrades, and storage assets.
Global Grids and Storage Coordination Council and Climate Finance Principles: The Council launched under the Action Agenda to take forward the COP30 “Plan to Accelerate the Expansion and Resilience of Power Grids”, led by the Green Grids Initiative (GGI). This Council will coordinate relevant stakeholders towards grid expansion and a renewables-powered future.
Financial institutions globally endorsed new Climate Finance Principles for Grids to standardize and scale investment in emerging economies: The principles establish a common framework to enable grid investments’ eligibility for climate finance. Institutions backing the framework include: African Development Bank, British International Investment, East African Development Bank, Inter-American Development Bank, Climate Bonds Initiative, Institutional Investors Group for Climate Change, Asia Investor Group on Climate Change, Global Renewables Alliance, Grid Works, Utilities for Net Zero Alliance, and the UK Government. Real signs of implementation:
The Asian Development Bank and World Bank announced $12.5 billion in combined financing to strengthen the ASEAN Power Grid.
The Inter-American Development Bank launched the Power Transmission Acceleration Platform for Latin America and the Caribbean, with Germany committing EUR 15 million to support grid expansion and modernization.
https://cop30.br/en/news-about-cop30/cop30-evening-summary-november-14
Also the major expansion in battery capacity
A lot of the outcomes came early in this COP see my table here:
https://ddebunked.org/d/421-outcomes-from-cop30-day-1-nov-10
The launch of the Tropical Forest Forever Foundation - which they believe can protect a billion hectares of tropical rainforest, almost all that there is.
https://ddebunked.org/d/371-first-outcome-from-cop30-in-brazil-the-tropical-forests-forever-foundation-launched-with-55-billion-already-committed-to-protect-tropical-forests-forever-and-with-20-of-the-funding-committed-for-indigenous-and-local-communities
See my fact check with Perplexity AI contrasting the no fuss substantial quiet progress in the background in the Action Agenda with the “all is almost lost” media fuss in the foreground.
