Venezuela Masterthread

stevie-mccarthy · 2026-01-03T14:10:31+00:00

To avoid 20 separate posts about Venezuela, please keep all comments about Venezuela under this post! I just woke up not long ago so sorry I missed all of...

MGA

Joaquin-Navarro Can we please keep other nations out of this discussion please?

Robert-Walker

MGA It is absolutely fine to talk about Mexico. Joaquin-Navarro is from Mexico so of course he cares about what the effects would be if any.

Mossy

ddscared Bold of you to declare NOTHING will happen when plenty of intelligent people examining this are seeing all the signs of world wars and stuff. The people will be blindsided by all this when clearly things are going down, Trump wants Panama and Mexico now and he said he would attack Venezuela because of cartel. Now he says the same with Mexico and you have the nerve to say he won’t? He’s doing all this and he’s telling you what he’s going to do and you are choosing to say nuh-uh

MGA

Mossy Thanks, you just convinced me to kill myself! I hope you’re happy knowing your words killed a man!

stevie-mccarthy

Mossy Please calm down a little bit and your language is a little bit harsh, especially in a group full of people with anxiety. Who are these ‘intelligent people examining seeing all the signs of world war and stuff’ ? If you shared some links with us will appreciate that so I can take a better look. I haven’t seen anyone say that this will lead to a world war.

Robert’s blog here may be a good read for you specifically on world war:
https://shortdebunks.substack.com/p/a-world-war-is-just-not-going-to

and, here:
https://robertinventor.substack.com/p/why-we-do-not-risk-a-world-war-from?utm_source=substack&utm_campaign=post_embed&utm_medium=web

How can have a world war when the primary adversaries are so weak compared to us, and none of them has any sort of global power projection? Plus those ‘primary adversaries’ are not an alliance, or an axis, or anything.

I understand you are likely scared too but please in the future be a bit more careful with your language, thank you!

GloriousAllostar

Mossy Midterms are also later this year. Trump is old. Everyone also said that “oh no! World war 3!” When there was the 12 (or was it 13?) day war between Iran and Isreal. Plenty of good reasons to believe this ain’t gonna be it.

MGA

So, what will happen to oil prices now that Venezuela has been attacked? It a potential ground invasion going to cause oil prices to spike, triggering another price shock that will worsen inflation again?!

@Robert-Walker @stevie-mccarthy

Robert-Walker

MGA Nothing will happen to oil prices or at most a very small temporary spike. Venezuela has very little by way of oil exports. It reached 900,000 barrels of oil a day in September 2025.

www.reuters.com/business/energy/venezuelas-oil-exports-surpass-900000-bpd-despite-us-pressure-data-shows-2025-12-03/

By comparison

Saudi Arabia exports 6 million barrels a day

https://www.ceicdata.com/en/indicator/united-arab-emirates/crude-oil-exports

https://www.ceicdata.com/en/indicator/saudi-arabia/crude-oil-exports

USA exports 4 million barrels per day as of 2024.

https://www.ceicdata.com/en/indicator/united-states/crude-oil-exports

UAE exports around 2.7 million a day as of 2024.

https://www.ceicdata.com/en/indicator/united-arab-emirates/crude-oil-exports

Venezuela used to export far more but the US was its main customer and the US stopped importing and sanctioned its oil exports.

But it never reached the potential it has from its oil fields.

And nobody else is affected by this operation. When there are military operations around the Hormuz Strait that does affect oil prices because a significant % of the world’s oil still flows through that strait.

But a short 90 minute operation in Venezuela is not going to affect oil exports probably even for Venezuela.

And longer term it will likely lead to the US lifting restrictions on Venezuela and Trump says he will help Venezuelan develop its oil extraction operations and modernize them in a transition US led government.

This is from Our World in Data, it is for production rather than export and is in terrawatt hours rather eccentrically.

But it shows the top four exporters in the world, total world oil production and you can see how small Venezuela’s contribution is.

https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/oil-production-by-country?time=2000..latest&country=SAU\~USA\~VEN\~RUS\~CAN\~OWID_WRL

Mossy

MGA get a hold of yourself man, nothing has even happened yet it’s just what big talks by heads are saying ddscared

stevie-mccarthy

MGA MGA, please don’t do anything harsh! If you feel like you are a danger to yourself please don’t stay alone, please seek help. You can call your emergency services or go to a hospital and they can help you there.

stevie-mccarthy

Joaquin-Navarro US says that they will ‘take control’ of Venezuela until they set up a new system there. Nobody knows exactly what that means, we just need to wait and see over the next few days and weeks.

No ww3 no, none of the main adversaries have the ability to project global power. ‘Nuclear apocalypse’ is impossible, even a full scale nuclear war wouldn’t be the apocalypse. But no reason to expect a nuclear war from this scenario either. I don’t think Trump wants South American territory - he want the oil for sure but he said that after some time he wants to have a new government take control of Venezuela. So he doesn’t want US to rule Venezuela permanently.

Trump can’t take Greenland and Canada, it’s just so crazy no general will follow the order to attack it.

Joaquin-Navarro

stevie-mccarthy Trump will invade Mexico next to combat the drug cartels also there? i live in Mexico (Jalisco state) very operate by drug cartels. that’s why i’m worried

MGA

stevie-mccarthy Sorry. I didn’t mean what I said. It was a spur of the moment comment. I have since ignored the user, which i probably should’ve done to begin with.

P.S. I have tried to delete my comment but it’s still up there. Maybe it takes a while to get taken down.

Mossy

GloriousAllostar the issue is all of these small world events lead up to world wars. Both cases of 1 and 2 started with a bunch of smaller events and battles. That’s what we currently have going on with this, Russia/ukraine and the Middle East as the big ones. It’s irresponsible to look at the state of the world and assume it won’t get worse. ddscared

ghostlynilla

Mossy Is it possible?Yeah sure,Likely?No

GloriousAllostar

Mossy Also incredibly irresponsible to look at the state of the world and automatically assume it will get worse. We thought WW3 was also gonna happen at the start of the Russo-Ukraine war! Right now, an actual attempt at peace is even being made now! You haven’t even been here what- three hours and the first things you are dead set on saying is that this will happen, not even answering Stevie’s question on who is saying that ww3 is coming cause of this at all (atleast when i write this)? Sorry. Ain’t buying what your selling.

stevie-mccarthy

Mossy Ever since 1945, there have been hundreds maybe even thousands of ‘small world events’, yet we didn’t have a world war in over 80 years. The world is definitely tense, everyone can see that, but a ‘world war’ if we think of it in the traditional sense, it actually just isn’t possible. Robert goes into it way more in his blog that I shared with you.

It is not irresponsible to look at the world and assume it won’t get worse. Like I said before, the world is tense, but the world was also tense in the 1980s-1990s, but then… the Berlin wall fell and the USSR collapsed. The world then became a far better place and millions of peoples lives were improved. I understand you feel scared and when we are scared, things just feel like thtey are gonna get worse and worse and worse. But that’s not guaranteed.

stevie-mccarthy

MGA I’m glad. Feel free to message me anytime if you wanna talk, okay? 😊

Mossy

GloriousAllostar I’ve lurked here since this group was on Facebook. Today was the first day I felt scared enough to actually comment. As for my sources? Social media political analysts. I’m not the “I’ll kill myself” kind of scared person. I’m the kind that doesn’t see anything good, and our world for the last 5 years has been going down hill. Russia doesn’t want peace. It’s actively trying to cut itself out by doing fake attacks on itself to blame Ukraine. Why should I or anyone think things won’t get worse? :/ ddscared

TurboSquid

This isn’t as drastically horrible as people are making it out to be. It’s not good, but the US has been doing this same song and dance for well over a century. Heck this isn’t the first, or second, or even the third time the US has gotten directly involved in another sovereign nation to install a new, friendlier regime and plunder its resources. It just hasn’t happened in a while because it never turns out well for either the US or the place they invade, and Iraq/Afghanistan were such a disaster that it is a bad idea politically on the domestic side. (Of course, it violates international law and is egregious, but the US typically has not cared about this, well before Trump). The only difference now is that social media exists, and everyone needs to act like they’ve “figured it out” or have something to say, despite most people not knowing what they’re talking about. Imagine if we had all of this during the invasion of Iraq, or the Gulf War, or Vietnam. Fundamentally what’s happening is sadly not the exception, but seemingly the rule. I’m not seeing any talk from any news sources about a world war, it’s all being covered the same way I’ve seen other US actions covered over the past decades. Maybe I’m wrong, but I just get the feeling that this is more of the same bs that the US has always done. I grew up post-9/11 and during Iraq/Afghanistan and all of this smells exactly the same. Yes it’s illegal, and immoral, and outrageous and people are right to be upset, but I’m really having a hard time trying to logically place this as something “new, unprecedented, and scary” versus “yet another US intervention somewhere.” I get that everyone is scared of Trump and the fact that he’s in charge right now but people are acting like they have amnesia, or that him being president is some “magic sauce” that makes this situation radically different from the past. It, unfortunately, is very precedented. Not just in human history but it hasn’t even been a decade since the US pulled out of Afghanistan, another place where they attempted regime change, and that Trump had little to do with. Please tell me I’m not going crazy here.

GloriousAllostar

Mossy Arright. Ill bite if you have been lurking out and about here. If you’ve been here since the facebook things then you’ve been around longer than me here. But again, political analysts on social media are not a good source. I could go and pretend to be one right now and i bet you id probably make a killing out of views 🫩

stevie-mccarthy

Mossy Is it okay if you share the things those analysts you saw were saying? I also follow plenty of political analysts and experts and not a single one made a peep today about ‘world war’.

GloriousAllostar

Mossy Plus, the more Russia drags it out the more it hurts them. They have to quit eventually and they know it.

Robert-Walker

Mossy Please label your posts withddscared to show that you are scared it is a group rule. In this new forum we have the ability to edit your comments so I’ll do that myself right now, it helps make it clear that you aren’t commenting as a voluntary fact checker to help scared people but as a scared person who needs help. As you yourself say. So I’ll label your comments asddscared and then I’ll respond to them.

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