Mossy With Russia there’s what Putin says publicly and what he says privately. Privately he has agreed to the things he’d only agree to if he wanted peace. But publicly he is making no concessions at all.
The whole peace process started when the US secondary sanctions hit Lukoil and Rosneft t he two top Russian oil producing companies.
Since then the Russian oil revenues which go directly to the Russian government haven’t been enough to pay for the war which is very expensive, about half a billion dollars a day. The Russian domestic reserves are falling fast. They can last for a long time, even for years. But this means the sooner the war stops the higher the Russian domestic reserves are at the end of the war.
If Putin stops this war he
- quickly gets the sanctions lifted.
- saves a third of a billion dollars a day or around $124 billion dollars a year by not having to fight the war any more
- saves the lives of around 1000 Russian soldiers a day.
And he is achieving nothing of any real significance in Russia.
While if he continues the war then the US can do much more severe sanctions. It can also support Ukraine more.
And Ukraine is rapidly developing more and more capabilities with its long range drones, the Flamingo which has hit some sort of a technical issue but when sorted will be similar in capability to the Tomahawk, its subsea baby and so on.
It is true that there is nothing in his public actions to suggest peace. Zelensky says the same. But privately in what he says to Trump he has made very significant concessions. That is what the peace negotiations are based on.
In particular he has agreed that he can sign a peace treaty that gives Ukraine the capability to defend itself from a future Russian attack and completely prevent such an attack so long as it doesn’t join NATO.
The faked attack on his palace is an attempt to deflect things away from that.
As you will surely know I follow the process very closely and take a look at the contents list here for an overview.
https://1960styleukrainenews.substack.com/p/1960s-updates-summary-of-the-ukraine
The reason that this started on Nov 23 is because that is when the Russian government lost a lot of the income it uses to pay for the war. It’s the date when Lukoil and Rosneft had to stop all their foreign operations including oil refineries globally and lost a lot of their global trade.
About the huge expense of the war for Russia - over $124 billion a year or a third of a billion a day (more likely closer to half a billion a day) - with secondary sanctions Russia can no longer pay for this from its oil revenue and its domestic reserves such as gold reserves are falling
They already know they have lost their foreign reserves which will be used for reconstruction in Ukraine but their domestic reserves are far larger. Their gold reserves alone are valued at over $300 billion with the current high gold prices.
https://russiaspivottoasia.com/russias-gold-reserves-at-a-record-valuation-high/
But they are having to sell gold to keep going.
QUOTE Russia started building up its gold reserves in 2007, forcing domestic gold producers to sell to the Central Bank of Russia (CBR) and built up a huge stock pile that makes up about a third of the central bank reserves. Those reached a peak of around $600bn on the eve of the Ukraine war, but since then have topped $700bn (including the $300bn frozen in the West) that is largely due to the dramatic appreciation in the price of gold which has broken all records this year. that has provided the Kremlin with at least a $100bn windfall that the Ministry of Finance (MinFin) is now tapping to plug budget holes.
https://www.intellinews.com/russia-turns-to-gold-reserves-as-sanctions-squeeze-deepens-414685/
Russia likely spends more than half a billion dollars a day on national defence with a lot of that spent on the war. Far more than Ukraine spends.
Official total $168.8 billion. True total likely more like $198.3 billion
QUOTE Officially, spending on national defense is set at 13.5 trillion rubles ($168.8 billion) in 2025 and 12.93 trillion rubles ($161.6 billion) in 2026. But actual outlays, including classified spending, are likely to be higher.
…
Officially, spending on national defense is set at 13.5 trillion rubles ($168.8 billion) in 2025 and 12.93 trillion rubles ($161.6 billion) in 2026. But actual outlays, including classified spending, are likely to be higher.
Russia does not disclose full military expenditures in its federal budget, publishing only planned figures.
Officials occasionally provide partial disclosures. In December, Defense Minister Andrei Belousov said defense spending amounted to 7.3% of GDP in 2025.
With GDP estimated at 217.3 trillion rubles ($2.72 trillion) in 2025, this implies total defense spending of around 15.86 trillion rubles ($198.3 billion), well above the figures published in the budget.
https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2026/01/02/russias-economy-in-2026-more-war-slower-growth-and-higher-taxes-a91579
Before the war started Russia was spending 3.6 trillion rubles on defence (budget for 2021) or 44.8 billion dollars a year
https://www.google.com/search?q=3.6+trillion+rubles+in+dollars
https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2026/01/02/russias-economy-in-2026-more-war-slower-growth-and-higher-taxes-a91579
168.8 billion - 44.8 billion = 124 billion.
That’s around a third of a billion dollars a day likely spent on the war.
This is not enough by itself to stop the war but it’s clear that Putin cares about it or he wouldn’t be engaging in the peace process
The gold reserves alone are enough to sustain another couple of years of this war. So it’s not about Russia running out of money.
But the longer the war continues the lower the reserves, the less money it has.
And the more easily mobilized reserves go down first.
While if the war stops then Russia can very quickly start selling oil without sanctions and the US has also offered to help its economy with joint investments in businesses of mutual interest to the US and Russia.
It’s not even clear why Putin wants to keep fighting. As someone who has lurked you have surely seen my debunk here:
BLOG: Putin not cornered
— on 2 meter map of Russia advanced just over 1 cm in Donbas in 1000 days
— can’t cross river Dnipro in Zaporizhia or Kherson oblasts
— & why Zelensky can’t give cities to Putin
You can read it here:
https://robertinventor.substack.com/p/putin-is-not-cornered-easy-to-stop
It is clear that Putin cares about the cost of the war.
There may well be other factors not revealed publicly. I’ve talked about the idea of a military psychological lever.
There may well be psychological levers. They would NOT be disclosed publicly if that’s what is going on.
BLOG: Why Tomahawk cruise missile is nothing to worry about
— Ukraine’s own Flamingo cruise missile is MORE capable
— Trump is offering something LESS capable
— Zelensky likely wants as lever for peace
You can read it here:
https://robertinventor.substack.com/p/why-tomahawk-cruise-missile-is-nothing
BLOG: Zelensky hints he can liberate occupied Ukraine by owning but NOT USING Tomahawk
— As a psychological lever?
— Putin would concede much
— if alternative is 1st president to lose the Black Sea Fleet
— Zelensky says the aim is to get Putin to the ceasefire negotiating table
— so this would likely be done secretly and likely with concessions that fall short of regaining ALL of occupied Ukraine
You can read it here:
https://shortdebunks.substack.com/p/to-end-the-war-and-liberate-all-of
Whatever the reason it is very clear that the Russians are negotiating with the US in a very different way from the way they did before November 23.
The secondary oil sanctions are having a significant effect on Putin.
The reason he used that fake attack on his palace was that the peace talks are going well and he has likely committed to Trump privately in ways he can’t back out of except by faking an attack and claiming that Ukraine did it. But if that is what is going on he failed in his attempt and Trump is doing no more 180 swings towards Putin.
There is never any possibility of Putin attacking NATO. It is involved in an all-out war with ukraine already and NATO is vastly superior or Putin wouldn’t care about the tomahawks never mind the F-35s which nobody is even considering selling to Ukraine.
Hope this helps.
I am answering you as a scared person and you have every right to talk here about things that scare you. Just be sure to label your posts asddscared and you are good to go.
Replying to:
And to
Today was the first day I felt scared enough to actually comment.
https://ddebunked.org/d/1191-venezuela-masterthread/58
Absolutely fine to comment and sorry to hear you were scared today and hope this helps.
