How likely is a Reform government in the next few years? (UK)

oli

I know that no one can ever know something like this for sure, but statistically, how likely is it that Reform are going to win the next general election? The way everyone talks about it makes it seem like it’s a definite thing, and as a queer woman, it’s making me incredibly scared for the future and what it means for people like me (and that’s obviously aside from all the hundreds of other reasons why it would be terrible). If anyone could offer any sort of reassurance or anything slightly positive, I’d very much appreciate it.

JoshuaCouture

@Robert-Walker bump for fact check

SophieBaxter

Reform are not likely to get a majority to lead BUT they could form a coalition with the conservative government.

I think, in 3 years, their popularity will be lessened. They will still have influence but I think Labour will pull back some followers.

Robert-Walker

Reform’s popularity has peaked at least for now. It underpeformed in the council elections and also in the devolved parliaments relative to what they would have hoped for. . See the debunk here by @Jord64

https://ddebunked.org/d/3962-debunk-englands-local-election-results-show-shift-towards-multi-party-vote-spread-reform-underperformed-significantly-compared-to-last-year

Electoral calculus has it at a 14% chance of a Reform majoriy and 36% chance of the largest party if held today.

https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/prediction_main.html

If Reform UK did get lots of seasts, enough for a majority it would likely have all the problems a large party gets of many different factions with different ideas of where to go. And if it is a minority government then it depends on its partner to pass votes .Either way - it’s coalesced around protests due to the econmic issues with Labour not keeping its election promises and issues around immigration.

You have legal protection including gay marriage.

As an example, the former Scottish Conservative Party leader Ruth Davidson was the first openly gay leader of a UK political party when elected leader in 2011.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ruth_Davidson

She is engaged to her partner Jen Wilson but not yet married and they have a child via IVF.

If this is about the current Labour leadership issue, then they are not at all likely to go to an early general election with such a huge majority.

Instead it’s about Kier Starmer continuing or resigning. If he resigns then he’d be replaced by another leader of the Labour party and the reason to do that would be to increase the confidence of the people and re-election chances and in the hope that a new leader is better able to carry out their election promises.

Any prime minister can be forced out by a vote of no confidence which would normally trigger a leadership contest or a general election if no party can form a government. https://commonslibrary.parliament.uk/votes-of-no-confidence/

In this case even a vote of no confidence would jsut mean a new leader for Labour.

oli

Robert-Walker Thank you for this. Likely what I’ve seen that makes it sound like an inevitability is just catastrophising, in that case.