UPDATE see next comment. Iran has TEMPORARILY PAUSED indirect communications with the USA. Its objective is to get Trump to put leverage on Israel to stop the advances and attacks in Lebanon NOT to try to restart the war.
The US had ALREADY agreed that Israel would do a ceasefire in Lebanon during the negotiating period so they are reminding the US of that commitment
See: Robert-Walker
Sorry I follow this closely and will answer soon. Short answer no the war is highly unlikely to start up again. It’s swung back and forth like this for a long time.
There are many pauses like this. The situation is genuinely complicated and combined with Trump’s indecisiveness and the difficulties of contacting Motjaba who probably is living in a safe place such as a cave deep underground and communicates mainly by a series of runners who pass messages one to the other. And the very wide range of politics in the Iranian regime.
What happened is that Israel has advanced a long way on the ground into Lebanon well beyond the Litani river which bounds the southern part of Lebanon near Israel where the Israeli soldiers have been operating for some weeks now.
Hezbollah is fighting the Israeli soldiers on the ground, often using FPV drones operated via optical fiber now.
Not clear what Israel’s objective is as they can’t stay there. The Iranians naturally object and want stopping this to be part of the memorandum of understanding. A peaceful resolution and ceasefire. Lebanon’s government wants to demilitarize Hezbollah and wants help from Israel for that, not to be attacked.
The US meanwhile has tried to get ships through the Omani waters again. Not clear to what extent they succeeded and of course Iran wants to stop that.
So all this makes it harder. But Trump does have the ability to end the war. The longer he waits the weaker the Memorandum of Understanding may get. And Congress won’t be pleased if he hasn’t made progress when they return tomorrow. More Republicans likely swing against him in war resolutions.
There is nothing here that could be solved by either side by returning to the bombing.
But negotiations are tricky. Marco Rubio is in charge on the US side and Vance has given up so that gives the US a better chance as Vance turned out to be a poor negotiator.
