This is especially to help those of you worried about human rights erosion under Trump. It’s to help scared people not a political position. You have very strong human rights under the Bill of rights + various Supreme Court cases and then the people can vote as they did recently in the local elections and will again in the next special election on December 2, and then in the mid terms for further checks on his power. And as his approval rating falls moderate Republicans are more emboldened to stand up to him too.
TEXT ON GRAPHIC
Net approval rating in year before midterms
All these presidents lost the House in the mid-terms
Obama 2009
Biden 2021
Trump 2017
Trump lost House in midterms in 2018, shift: +47 Rep to +36 Dem
He seem on track to lose them in 2026 likely by a large margin
I thought I’d do a simplified version of the Economics Turmp approval tracker - it shows Trump data for the first of every month rather than for the entire month for 2025. This shows natural checks and balances operating in the US democracy where a president typically gets checks on what he does after a “honeymoon period”.
The American people elected him with a very narrow margin in the House which limited his ability to pass legislation with only the Big Bill really to show for it which involved many compromises relative to what he wanted.
What happened is that it more or less tracks 2017 except that it started higher and for the last month it’s gone down further.
I just used the data for the 1st of each month and then drew a curve through the points and added Nov 24 at the end.
I can replaced that with the data for Dec 1 when we get there.
Data used:
| Month | Trump 2025 | Trump 2017 | Obama 2009 | Biden 2021 |
|---|
| February | +2% | -4% | +32% | +14% |
| March | +2% | -6% | +23% | +12% |
| April | -3% | -8% | +20% | +9% |
| May | -9% | -9% | +19% | +12% |
| June | -8% | -12% | +18% | +10% |
| July | -11% | -13% | +14% | +7% |
| August | -14% | -14% | +8% | +4% |
| September | -14% | -13% | +6% | -3% |
| October | -16% | -14% | +7% | -7% |
| November | -17% | -16% | +7% | -7% |
| December | -19% | -15% | +5% | -8% |
I can’t copy the data from the Economics site in a public post, but can do a remake. like this.
https://www.economist.com/interactive/trump-approval-tracker
If you check out the tracker page it has other graphics that show that:
- He has negative approval for all the policies that the Economist tracks and is way negative on inflation / prices. Americans don’t believe they have seen an improvement there as a result of his presidency
- He has positive approval in only 10 states and negative approval even in Texas (-19.9%) and Florida his home state [-8.2%]
- He has negative approval in both sexes, ALL age groups, ALL ethnicities and ALL levels of education
This looks like a guy set to lose the mid terms in the House, probably by a landslide. Though the Senate is far more favorable to Republicans because only a third is up for election every 2 years and the ones up for election this time include very few marginal ones, it is possible that they lose 3 seats (meaning only 1 senator can top any bill) or even 4 (and lose the senate and its important appointment ability even if legislation is stopped in the House)
The voting public including you have the ability to vote in representatives to put a check on him in 2027 and to vote in a new president in 2029.
Human rights erosion [NOT EROSION JUST ACTIONS OF A SINGLE PRESIDENT WHOSE APPROVAL IS WAY DOWN AND WILL LIKELY LOSE THE HOUSE IN THE MIDTERMS]:
- It is just that you temporarily have a president for 4 years who is doing things that are gray area and in some casess out and out illegal - blowing up the alleged drug smugglers is illegal. He can’t do similar things in the USA because of the US bill of rights and Supreme Court cases
- His actions domestically have no effects on people in even Canada or Mexico, only effect globally is on people trying to smuggle drugs out of Venezuela
- The USAID freeze harmed many people globally but they led to a response by Africa and other countries to make themselves more resilient and less dependent
- Meanwhile there’s lots of work to improve financial support of weaker economies in other ways for instance via the pledge at COPs to help them fight climate change, reverse desertification and protect ecosystems and build tsrong economies based on renewables
- Globally we have had some major shifts towards more human rights for instance in Syria and also in Brazil (rights of indigenous people in Brazil under Lula)
- The trans rights issue is due to people who are unaware of the latest medical science or don’t believe it and will likely change as this becomes more widely established in the public
Trump’s ability to do this is already reduced because of opposition by moderate Republicans in Congress and his rapidly declining popularity.
- Many moderate Republicans think he is too far right for them. They will object more and more and have power to stop votes in the House and Senate and also to act as committees all held by Republicans and more able to act with his approval reduced
You have very strong human rights laws in the USA in the bill of rights and many Supreme Court cases since then. So he can’t push it very far.
You can vote for a representative who will push back. And it’s not just up to you though, even if in a district where your vote has little effect, you by voting are one of thousands to millions of people who think like you who are also voting so your single vote is part of a much larger response which does have an effect
He is well below his approval rating even this time in 2017 and much further below Obama or Biden at this point in their first term.
His approval rating is below 50% on ALL THE TOPICS the Economist tracks.
Also for all age groups
All ethnicities.
The next test of the Republican party is the special election on 2nd December.
It’s too close to call.
QUOTE STARTS
The poll found Republican Matt Van Epps leading Democrat Aftyn Behn 48% to 46% with 2% choosing another candidate and 5% undecided.
“The special election in Tennessee’s 7th District will come down to what groups are motivated to turnout on election day, and who stays home,” Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling, said. “Those who report voting early break for Behn, 56% to 42%, whereas those who plan to vote on Election Day break for Van Epps, 51% to 39%. Voters under 40 are Behn’s strongest group, 64% of whom support her, while Van Epps’ vote increases with age, to 61% of those over 70.”
Both Van Epps and Behn had 47% favorable ratings ahead of the December 2, 2025, special election to represent 14 counties in western Tennessee.
The poll also found President Donald Trump with a 47% approval rating in a state that voted for Trump three times and has gone Republican in the last seven presidential elections.
“President Trump’s approval rating is a stark reversal from last November, when he carried the district by 22 points. The decline is driven by independents, among whom 59% disapprove and just 34% approve,” Kimball said.
The economy is the top issue for 38% of Tennessee voters, followed by housing affordability (15%), healthcare (13%), threats to democracy (13%), immigration (6%), crime (5%), and education (5%).
https://www.wdhn.com/news/new-emerson-college-polling-survey-shows-tight-special-election-in-tennesee/?nxsparam=1
Ballotpedia say it’s been Republican since 1983 but since the 2021 redistricting it’s not had a Republican vote level higher than 60%.
Ballotpedia
Tennessee’s 7th Congressional District special election, 2025
Mark Green won it by 21.5% in 2024
https://ballotpedia.org/Mark_Green_(Tennessee)
The Dems and the opposition party tend to do well in special elections but this is a big shift from + 21.5 % to so close.
The Republicans are still slightly favoured to win it.
If they lose it though, then it will make their margin very small especially since Marjorie Taylor Green has resigned and will leave in January.
They likely have more Republicans in the House that leave before the mid terms because
- always a few leave
- they may leave especially under Trump due to not being in agreement with his policies.
That leads to gaps while they wait for the special elections.
Although not very likely if they lost 3 seats before the mid terms the house would flip. They did lose 3 seats before the 2018 mid terms though the last two only when they were re-elected at the same time as the elections for the period from Nov to Jan. He lost his first seat last time in January 2018.
He made big promises. He didn’t fulfil them. The public approval is falling and he is doing a fair few things that independents and moderate Republicans don’t like, so he’s losing votes. It’s why the midterms often swing against the sitting president.
All this is to show that these external things that may seem so permanent to some of you are always changing and Trump is already losing a lot of his power as always happens to a US president after the first few months. He is no different in this respect.
The voting public including you have the ability to vote in representatives to put a check on him in 2027 and to vote in a new president in 2029.
